Mathematical Statistics in Game Theory and Odds Calculation
Here is a closer look at how you can better understand calculating odds using mathematical statistics and implied probability rates.
Understanding basic mathematical statistics in game theory and what the odds and implied probability rates are trying to tell you about a sporting event’s most likely result/outcome can determine whether certain bets are worth placing.
The average odds currently offered by today’s most trusted online bookmakers are fairly similar and are usually set in-house by a chief oddsmaker or trusted third-party organisation/outside consultant.
Huge data sets and statistics are relied upon to set the odds, which are calculated using highly sophisticated computer-generated mathematical algorithm programs to give punters the most competitive odds.
Occasionally, promotional offers on some of today’s most trusted iGaming sites, such as ‘Odds Boost’ promos, will alter the odds, improving them in certain markets for the sports bettor.
Besides these frequent ‘Odds Boost’ promotions that some sites offer, the odds for any given sporting event bet type should always be fairly evenly priced throughout the industry.
Which sites are well-known for having some of the iGaming industry’s most competitive odds?
One of the world’s most trusted online bookmakers that is well-known for frequently having highly competitive sports betting odds, is the official 10cric.com website. It has thousands of monthly sports betting markets with great odds for almost every major professional sporting event.
You can also experience the best gaming action at 10cric because they have thousands of live dealer and computer-generated online casino games, all of which are supplied by multiple top-tier, award-winning providers.
Just like their better-than-average sports betting odds, their games are known for having high or above-average return to player (RTP%) payout rates.
How can I improve the chances of my bets winning and place more strategic bets?
When betting on any sporting event, say football, it’s important that you try to gather as much information as possible to give any bets you place the best chance at returning a profit.
The latest football statistics aren’t hard to find, and whether you decide to place pre-match bets long before an event has started or live (aka in-play) bets as the action unfolds, gathering the following metrics/stats and carefully analysing them can help you place well-informed bets.
Although it still doesn’t guarantee you will win more, applying this statistical knowledge to your betting strategies should see that you start losing fewer bets and hopefully winning more.
If you want to bet on the UEFA Champions League, Spain’s La Liga or the English Premier League, some of the most important stats to gather include the following:
- Recent run of form (how well have both teams fared over the past five or so games, and which teams did they play)
- Who will most likely feature in the starting 11 line-ups
- Which players are in/out of form
- Latest injury news
- Recent signings
- Assist statistics
- Playing strategies/styles
- Historical performances between the two teams
- Most common number of goals per game (average)
- Most common half-time/full-time scores/goals
There are typically hundreds of individual bet types per football match, so some of the other stats you might also want to look at are the most common full-time scores, average number of red/yellow cards per game, average time of first/last goal, and which player(s) typically scores most goals.
Other things to consider before placing football bets are current league standings, which part of the season it is (beginning, middle or end), and any other team/player news and gossip you can get your hands on.
Even finding out what the weather will be like on matchday can help you place more informed bets. For example, some teams/players don’t play so well when it’s baking hot, sunny, and dry, whereas other teams/individuals perform much better in cold weather when it’s raining.
Although it seems like there’s an overwhelming amount of information to gather, analyse, and absorb before placing bets, doing so can help you place better wagers that are more likely (but still never guaranteed) to return you a profit.
The next thing to do after gathering as much relevant information as you can about an event is to look at the odds to see what they are saying.
What’s the easiest way to understand what the odds are trying to tell me?
First of all, it’s important to note that there are three sports betting odds formats – fractional, decimal, and moneyline (aka American odds). Depending on where you live and which iGaming sites you decide to join to place bets will often determine which odds format is more prevalent.
However, you can also now find a growing number of sites that allow you to change how the odds are displayed on that website simply by clicking or tapping the odds format button.
Fractional odds are mainly used in the United Kingdom. North America, meaning the United States and some parts of Canada, use the American/Moneyline odds format, and almost everywhere else uses the decimal odds format.
The best thing to do to quickly get to grips with the odds you are presented with is to stick to one odds format. When you know the odds, you can also find out the implied probability rate (i.e., the chance of that outcome/result actually occurring).
Here are a few quick examples:
- Fractional odds: 1/100. Decimal odds: 1.01. American/moneyline odds: -10,000. Implied probability rate: 99.99% (result likely to occur)
- Fractional odds: 2/9. Decimal odds: 1.22. American/moneyline odds: -450. Implied probability rate: 81.80%
- Fractional odds: 4/11. Decimal odds: 1.36. American/moneyline odds: -275. Implied probability rate: 73.33%
- Fractional odds: 8/13. Decimal odds: 1.62. American/moneyline odds: -162.5. Implied probability rate: 61.90%
- Fractional odds: 6/4. Decimal odds: 2.50. American/moneyline odds: +150. Implied probability rate: 40.00%
- Fractional odds: 5/1. Decimal odds: 6.00. American/moneyline odds: +500. Implied probability rate: 16.70%
- Fractional odds: 33/1. Decimal odds: 34.00. American/moneyline odds: +3,300. Implied probability rate: 2.90%
- Fractional odds: 1000/1. Decimal odds: 1001.00. American/moneyline odds: +10,000. Implied probability rate: 0.1% (least likely to occur)
In other words, a bet with a high IPR and ‘short’ odds will almost certainly occur, whereas an outsider/underdog bet with long odds and a low IPR is not likely to occur.
Despite this, the other important thing to remember in sports betting is that anything can happen during a sports event, such as an individual football match or throughout the course of a season, which can ‘upset’ the odds.
In other words, just because you place a bet on the odds-on favourite to improve your chances of winning doesn’t mean your bet will win every time because the favourite doesn’t always win.
Final thoughts
When placing sports bets online at a reputable iGaming site that’s fully licensed and regulated by a mid or top-tier gaming commission/licensing authority, always remember to gamble responsibly.
As mentioned, gathering and analysing as many statistics and other relevant metrics as possible can help you place more informed bets, just as much as knowing what the IPRs and odds are trying to tell you. It also helps if you enjoy the sport you want to bet on.
Don’t forget that on sites like 10cric, you can place pre-match bets long before the match has started but don’t panic if you lose any pre-match bets within five minutes of the match starting because they also provide live betting services.
In other words, if the event you bet on is panning out completely differently from how everyone (even the experts/pundits) thought it would, live/in-play bets give you a chance to recoup your initial lost bets and allow you to place more informed wagers based on how the event is actually unfolding.