77 Introduction

Climate Change: saga of data collection, opinions and uncertainties

From “Climate of Complete Certainty” (by Bret Stephens): https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/28/opinion/climate-of-complete-certainty.html?mwrsm=Email&_r=0 

“When someone is honestly 55 percent right, that’s very good and there’s no use wrangling. And if someone is 60 percent right, it’s wonderful, it’s great luck, and let him thank God. 

But what’s to be said about 75 percent right? Wise people say this is suspicious. Well, and what about 100 percent right? Whoever says he’s 100 percent right is a fanatic, a thug, and the worst kind of rascal.

— An old Jew of Galicia (Polish poet Czeslaw Milosz)”

“I’ve taken the epigraph for this column from the Polish poet Czeslaw Milosz, who knew something about the evils of certitude. Perhaps if there had been less certitude and more second-guessing in Clinton’s campaign, she’d be president. Perhaps if there were less certitude about our climate future, more Americans would be interested in having a reasoned conversation about it.” Bret Stephens.

Certitude: absolute certainty or conviction that something is the case. Example: “the question may never be answered with certitude”

“There’s a lesson here. We live in a world in which data convey authority. But authority has a way of descending to certitude, and certitude begets hubris. From Robert McNamara to Lehman Brothers to Stronger Together, cautionary tales abound.” Bret Stephens.

Hubris: excessive pride or self-confidence. Example: “the self-assured hubris among economists was shaken in the late 1980s“; In Greek tragedy: excessive pride toward or defiance of the gods, leading to nemesis.